There will be no third consecutive Grand Slam final between Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer. Owners of 27 major titles between them, Djokovic and Federer battled for the trophies at both Wimbledon and the U.S. Open last summer. If they collide again Down Under, the showdown will come not in the championship match, but in the semifinals.
That was one of the notable revelations of Friday’s Australian Open draw ceremony. The proceedings also saw Rafael Nadal land on the other side of the bracket with Andy Murray, and in the same quarter as Stan Wawrinka.
Djokovic’s quarter
Djokovic’s relatively tough draw goes beyond the fact that Federer may be lurking in the semifinals. Before getting there, the world No. 1 could have to pass a couple of tough tests—heck, he might even lose a set! Djokovic will kick off his fortnight against Korean teenager Hyeon Chung, who is already up to 51st in the rankings. Ivan Dodig is a possible second-round opponent and another Croat, Ivo Karlovic, is looming large as a potential fourth-round adversary. Throughout all of 2015, Karlovic was the only man to eliminate Djokovic from a tournament prior to the title match (Doha quarterfinals).
Life will be even more difficult for the other top-eight seed in this section. Kei Nishikori has to go up against Philipp Kohlschreiber right off the bat before likely running into either Jo-Wilfried Tsonga or Benoit Paire in the fourth round. Nishikori lost in round one of the U.S. Open to none other than Paire, who was eventually ousted by Tsonga one stop short of a trip to the quarterfinals.
Best first-round matchup – (7) Kei Nishikori vs. Philipp Kohlschreiber
Despite all of Nishikori’s success, he is no stranger to early exits at Grand Slams. He has won just a single match in the last two majors combined and he has fallen in the first round at three of his last nine slams. In 10 previous Australian Open appearances Kohlschreiber has never lost in the first round. Just barely missing out on a seed at No. 34 in the world, the German is unquestionably one of the most talented and dangerous floaters in the draw.
Best potential second-round matchup – (9) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga vs. Illya Marchenko
Best potential third-round matchup – (14) Gilles Simon vs. (22) Ivo Karlovic
Possible surprises – Paire will always be prone to bouts of inconsistency, but his 2015 U.S. Open performance appears to have birthed a new player. He finished runner-up to Wawrinka in Tokyo and currently registers at No. 18 in the world. He will be well-rested for this major after losing in the Auckland second round to Lukas Rosol following a Chennai semifinal appearance. Paire has an ideal draw through two rounds and cannot complain about Tsonga and Nishikori being his two nearest top-12 seeds. A quarterfinal run is by no means out of the question.
Federer’s quarter
Federer doesn’t always get difficult Grand Slam draws, but when he does, he prefers a string of consecutive matches against wildly talented opponents…or something like that. The 34-year-old Swiss should be able to sleepwalk past Nikoloz Basilashvili in round one before the proverbial heat index ratchets up. In succession from the last 64 through the quarterfinals, Federer could conceivably face Alexandr Dolgopolov, Grigor Dimitrov, Dominic Thiem, and Nick Kyrgios.
There is no foreseeable reason why Federer vs. Dolgopolov and Federer vs. Dimitrov would not come to fruition. The statuses of Thiem and Kyrgios, however, are much different stories. Thiem has to open against Leonardo Mayer before possibly meeting Nicolas Almagro and David Goffin prior to the second week. Kyrgios is on a collision course for the third round with Tomas Berdych. Joining the volatile Aussie and big-hitting Czech in an intriguing lower half of this section are fellow Croats Marin Cilic and Borna Coric.
Best first-round matchup — Alexandr Dolgopolov vs. Ricardas Berankis
Dolgopolov took care of Berankis 7-5, 7-5, 6-2 at the same stage of this same event in 2014. Fast forward two years and the gap may have closed just a bit. Dolgopolov is a clear favorite on paper, but he is unseeded Down Under as a result of a slow start to last season following an injury-plagued 2014 campaign. Berankis’ second half of 2015 included a quarterfinal showing in Washington, D.C., two U.S. Open five-setters (beat Joao Sousa, lost to Goffin), and a Challenger title in Italy.
Best potential second-round matchup – (12) Marin Cilic vs. Borna Coric
Best potential third-round matchup – (6) Tomas Berdych vs. (29) Nick Kyrgios
Possible surprises — The Fanatics probably had two hopes for the draw at their home Grand Slam: a winnable match or two for Lleyton Hewitt and a manageable path deep into the tournament for Kyrgios. Nick has a knack for Australian Open drama and this bracket sets up nicely for more of the same. A quarterfinalist last season, the polarizing 20-year-old should coast through his first two matches. As a No. 25-32 seed, he could have drawn Djokovic, Murray, Federer, Nadal, or his good buddy (not!) Wawrinka in round three. Instead he has Berdych—if they both make it that far. To say that is winnable would be an understatement.
Wawrinka’s quarter
Nothing short of an Australian Open phenomenon in recent times, Wawrinka has played five-setters against Djokovic on three straight occasions. In 2013 it was a fourth-rounder. In 2014 it was a quarterfinal. In 2015 it was a semifinal. By now you know the trend: yes, in 2016 it would be the final. But Wawrinka has a long—very long—way to go before he can think about that scenario. The Swiss’ draw is positively nightmarish. He could go up against a red-hot Jack Sock in the third round and Brisbane champion Milos Raonic in the last 16. Likely waiting in the quarterfinals would be Nadal, who trounced Wawrinka twice last fall: 6-2, 6-1 in Shanghai and 6-3, 6-2 at the World Tour Finals. Wawrinka beat the Spaniard once in between, but that was by a 7-6(8), 7-6(7) scoreline in Paris.
Nadal’s path to the quarters in Melbourne is not as taxing. An immediate date with Fernando Verdasco will make pre-match headlines, but it may not amount to much. Familiar foes Ernests Gulbis and Andrey Kuznetsov are potential third-round adversaries, while Kevin Anderson and Gael Monfils will try to set up a fourth-round contest against Nadal. But the 14-time major champion had no trouble with Anderson last year in Melbourne and Monfils is once again a question mark due to injury.
Best first-round matchup — (5) Rafael Nadal vs. Fernando Verdasco
It’s not often that two players are featured against each other on ESPN Classic and four or five days later are going head-to-head in the very first round of a tournament. That will be the case with Nadal and Verdasco, who produced one of the best matches ever played in the semis of the 2009 Australian Open. More than a few of their ensuing encounters have been borderline disasters in terms of quality, but who knows… can lightning strike twice in Melbourne? Although it’s unlikely, Verdasco has won two of their last three meetings—so he has a remote chance of making it competitive.
Best potential second-round matchup – (25) Jack Sock vs. Lukas Rosol
Best potential third-round matchup – (11) Kevin Anderson vs. (23) Gael Monfils
Possible surprises — The unseeded contingent in this quarter is unspectacular at best. Even three of the seeds are nothing to write home about (unless Monfils experiences a sudden and miraculous resurrection). Wawrinka, Nadal, Anderson, Raonic, and Sock are clearly the cream of the crop in this section; there will not be much room for anyone else to shine. But nobody here is anywhere close to unbeatable, so don’t be totally shocked if the last man standing after the quarterfinals is Anderson, Raonic, or Sock as opposed to Wawrinka or Nadal.
Murray’s quarter
The Australian section of the bracket features seven players who hail from the host nation: Hewitt, James Duckworth, Bernard Tomic, Sam Groth, Matthew Ebden, John Millman, and Jordan Thompson. Hewitt and Duckworth will be the early talk of the town for their head-to-head showdown during first-round action, but only one—Tomic—has a real chance to do serious damage in Melbourne. The world No. 17 has a great draw (he even told chair umpire Mohamed Lahyani as much while sitting down for a changeover in Sydney) that should see him cruise into fourth-round showdown against Murray.
Speaking of Murray, he could not have asked for a better draw. His nearest seeds are Joao Sousa, Fabio Fognini, and Tomic, and David Ferrer is unquestionably the weakest of the 5-8 seeds. Alexander Zverev is a relatively big-name opponent in round one, but the teenaged German is still a few years away from serious slam contention. The second-ranked Scot is going to storm into the quarterfinals, where he will see either Ferrer, John Isner, or Feliciano Lopez.
Best first-round matchup — (WC) Lleyton Hewitt vs. (WC) James Duckworth
This will not necessarily be the highest-quality match of the tournament or even of the first round. But it’s an enticing clash between two Australians that will undoubtedly get night-session treatment in Rod Laver Arena. The atmosphere is going to be electric—especially if it goes to five sets. And nothing screams “five-set marathon” quite like Hewitt vs. Duckworth at the Australian Open. Even the much-younger Duckworth already has plenty of experience with grueling five-setters in Melbourne. Get your popcorn ready for Hewitt’s last ride.
Best potential second-round matchup – (32) Joao Sousa vs. Donald Young
Best potential third-round matchup – (10) John Isner vs. Feliciano Lopez
Possible surprises — The Aussie fans will have their fingers crossed for a miracle run by Hewitt, but under no circumstances would he be able to survive a second-round tussle with Ferrer. There just aren’t going to be any real surprises in this quarter. But how about this for a good story? American veteran Brian Baker is making yet another comeback. Baker has not played since 2013 after suffering a terrible knee injury at the Australian Open early in that season. He has a winnable opener on his hands against a slumping Simone Bolelli, who is 0-2 in 2016 and 0-4 in his last four matches dating back to last year.
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