From 2001 through 2008, the Australian Open was defined by unexpected finalists. Since then, the trend has been the complete opposite.
Dating back to the epic 2009 final between Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer, only one man outside the Big 4 (Stan Wawrinka in 2014) has played in the Aussie Open title match. Looking at it another way, zero men outside the Big 5 (Wawrinka, who lifted the winner’s trophy in ’14, has three career Grand Slam titles just like Andy Murray) have appeared in the Australian Open since Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in 2008.
By that measure, Marin Cilic can already be considered a “surprise” finalist. But the 6’6” Croat is a major champion (2014 U.S. Open), was the runner-up at Wimbledon in 2017, and he will be No. 3 in the world on Monday.
Surprise? No.
Hyeon Chung? Now that would be a surprise?
Kyle Edmund saw his chance for a similar feat end at the hands of Cilic on Thursday night, so now it is up to Chung if the Australian Open is going to produce an unseeded finalist. It’s unlikely of course, given that the 21-year-old South Korean has to go up against Roger Federer on Friday, but it would invoke memories of an era not too long ago.
Things got even more surprising one year later, at least up until the championship match. In 2003, No. 31 seed Rainer Schuettler capitalized on a good draw (like Johansson) to reach the final before getting absolutely thrashed by Agassi (just as Clement had been). Younes El Aynaoui stunned world No. 1 Lleyton Hewitt in Schuettler’s section of the bracket and the German eventually faced an injured Andy Roddick in the semis after Roddick had outlasted El Aynaoui 21-19 in the fifth set in their memorable quarterfinal collision.
After a couple of Australian Opens that restored some kind of order to things, a three-year streak of surprise finalists was touched off in 2006. Marcos Baghdatis. Fernando Gonzalez. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.
Baghdatis’ 2006 run was especially amazing. The young Cypriot won three matches in five sets, including against No. 7 seed Ivan Ljubicic in the quarterfinals and against No. 4 seed David Nalbandian in the semifinals. He also upset world No. 2 Andy Roddick in four sets during fourth-round action. Only Federer managed to stop Baghdatis at the final hurdle. Gonzalez’s 2007 charge was memorable for its quality as opposed to being a huge surprise (he was the No. 10 seed). The Chilean, owner one of the most fearsome forehands in tennis history, obliterated everything in his sight starting with the fourth round, disposing of James Blake, Rafael Nadal, and Tommy Haas all in straight sets. Once again, Federer was too much in the final. In 2008, Nadal fell victim to another big-hitting but underdog foe. Tsonga, who was unseeded, took Melbourne by storm and dismantled the Spaniard in the semis before succumbing to Novak Djokovic in the final.
Now on the heels of a nine-year stretch in which Federer, Nadal, Djokovic, Murray, just about monopolized spots in the final, the times are changing. Cilic has already bucked the trend to some extent. An appearance by Chung in Sunday’s title match would be on a whole different level altogether.
For now, the up-and-coming world No. 58 is surprised simply to be in the semis.
“Yeah, I’m really surprised,” Chung said. “Because I really [didn’t] know (I could do it). I [made the] semis; I beat like Sascha, Novak, the other good players. I [had never played in the] second week in Grand Slam, so I’m really surprised.”
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